Is the UK really in recession, does it matter and who is going to fix it?

This week the Office for National Statistics (ONS)** released it's estimate for the economic performance of the UK for the first quarter of 2012. The ONS reported that the economy contracted by (a mere) 0.2% versus the same period last year. I am sure you spotted that I deliberately used the word 'estimate' because they don't really know and will revise the figures before settling on a number.

Does it really matter if we are in technically in recession (2 consecutive quarters of negative growth) or not? Whether the reality is -0.2% or even +0.2% we have to accept that the economy isn't growing very much.

Some of you will be spitting blood at my question and denounce me as either a rich Tory toff or just a complete idiot (or both?).

I am not being arrogant by posing this question. I just want to explore the topic a little rather than cry into my beer with the rest of the nation that we are all doomed; never to enjoy living standards again like we did before 2007.

If you believe the YouGov poll for The Sun* Labour lead the Conservatives by 11 percentage points - a big margin. In my view there are three main reasons for this. Firstly, the public don't like cuts; it does not feel good. I've never liked the taste of medicine much either. Secondly, the coalition government has had a pretty awful few months during which it scored quite a few own goals. Thirdly, it's time for 'Dave' to start leading with a positive agenda, albeit it a 'value for money' one, to set a direction for our country. This will be no easy task with little money to spend and given that he is not leading a Conservative government so he can't really be himself.

The UK's global reputation amongst the financial institutions, credit agencies and foreign governments for its macro financial management remains high because the Prime Minister and the Chancellor of the Exchequer are focused on austerity and cutting our deficit. This plan gives them credibility where many European governments have failed. The downside is that it doesn't do much for morale here at home amongst the public especially if unemployment remains high and people feel increasingly poorer.

Whether the UK is in a recession or not is important mainly because it gives the media the opportunity to use 'recession' as a headline which in turn is a self fulfilling prophecy. Essentially, we talk ourselves into feeling more negative and in turn people are cautious with their spending. It's a downward spiral.

Politicians like to blame politicians and the public just want someone to blame. Unfortunately I don't believe the recession will be fixed by any government in Westminster, Downing Street or Whitehall. Only you and I can fix it. If we can afford to we need to spend and not save too much of our money. It's back to the first lesson of GCSE economics when you learn about 'supply and demand'. We need to buy goods and services (which makes us feel better anyway) which will drive up business confidence resulting it better profits, the creation of jobs and positive economic growth.

At the same time businesses, big and small, need to innovate to drive customer demand and create more jobs.

We have to stop blaming the government for the recession and take some responsibility. We have to cut the public sector because the macro economics of our borrowing doesn't add up. The public sector is too expensive and too big so it's right that we cut back and that is why it is vital that the private sector innovates and the public spend.

The UK may or may not be in recession but if we think we are and we behave negatively as a result we will remain in this rut for longer than we ought to.

Sources:

* The Independent http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/poll-gives-labour-doubledigit-lead-7654279.html

** The Telegraph http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9225414/Britain-in-double-dip-recession-as-growth-falls-0.2pc.html

Brilliant free day out for the children (when it's raining or even if it's not)

As it has rained for most of April here in the UK I thought it was about time I finished this blog post that I actually started writing in 2011!

If you live in the UK and you are a parent you will be all too familiar with the challenge the often poor weather gives you when it comes to entertaining your children on a wet weekend.


I'm not a parent (yet) but during a recent Bank Holiday I was faced with trying to entertain my 13 year old brother who was visiting for half term. We talked about going to Woburn Safari Park but on the Monday morning it was pouring with rain. So instead we went to see these guys and some of their friends!

A friend of mine had recommended that should I find myself at a loose end anytime that there is a brilliant place, only 25 miles from where I live, that appears to be a bit of a hidden gem!

The Natural History Museum at Tring, Hertfordshire started life as the private collection of Lionel Walter, 2nd Baron Rothschild, until the Rothschild family gave it to the nation in 1937, and houses one of the finest collections of stuffed mammals, birds, insects and reptiles in the United Kingdom.

Check out this beetle (I don't have small hands!):

Don't let the idea of stuffed animals put you off. Although for many the mere idea is in poor taste the truth is that it has to be one of the best ways to see and learn about the natural world. If you don't like the idea of animals being kept in captivity in a zoo or safari park this could be the place for you.

I have lived within 25 miles of this place for 25 years and have only just discovered it which makes me think that so many people, especially children, are missing out on this free day out.

What you need to know:

• Entry is free
• Free parking is available
• The location is Akerman Street, Tring, Hertfordshire HP23 6AP
• Telephone: 020 7942 6000
• Opening times: Monday to Saturday 10am - 5pm and Sunday 2pm to 5pm and every day apart from 24-26 December
• Time needed: Allow 2 hours although you could easily spend 5
• You can take a camera and video camera
• Find out more information at the Natural History Museum at Tring website

Easy to get to by train:

• Tring is on the train line between London Euston and Birmingham so is easy and quick to get to if you live near many places on this line. You can check times on the London Midland train company website
• 45 minutes from Northampton
• 35 minutes from London
• 22 minutes from Milton Keynes 

GilesTweets.com / 25th April 2012.

Fair Income Tax

Every budget speech I can ever remember has come under attack by political opponents but George Osborne's 2012 budget has stayed in the news several weeks after his red box moment on the steps of Number 11 Downing Street.

One of the biggest issues remaining in the headlines is Income Tax. I hold onto one key principle when it comes to income tax which is that I believe that we should do our very best to have low tax rates to enable individuals to decide how to spend the highest possible proportion of their income. I believe this goes hand in hand with another of my political principles which is to limit the role of government in society to only necessary services.

I believe that most income tax payers want to 'keep' the biggest proportion of their hard earned income. It makes sense right? If you actually took the time to work how much of every £1 you earn goes to the government by way of all taxes including income tax, council tax, VAT, road fund licence etc it would be quite depressing. It is actually no wonder some people try and avoid paying tax. I wonder how many self employed people who get paid mainly with cash actually pay tax on all their earnings?

Anyway, I digress slightly. The reason I had to write this blog today is that I keep hearing Labour politicians and others on the left of politics talking about how important it is that high income earners pay a 'fair' level of income tax. What do they mean by fair? The answer is that they believe that if you earn more then you should pay more.

This is like saying that if you earn £200,000 (two hundred thousand pounds) a year and I earn £20,000 (twenty thousand pounds) a year that you should pay more for a Big Mac at McDonalds or pay more for 3 bedroom terraced house than me because you earn more and that would be fairer. I am not sure many people would agree with this example of fairness. In an ideal world I would argue that we should all pay the same fixed amount of tax to fund the government. It's a club that we all have to join whether we can contribute financially or whether we need it to support us by way of the welfare state.

However, I can accept the principle that those earning £200,000 a year can afford to pay more income tax than those earning £20,000 a year. Let's imagine for a moment that we had a simple tax system that required us all to pay 10% of our income in tax. The person earning £200,000 would pay £20,000 and the person earning £20,000 would pay £2,000. Thus the higher income earner in this example would be paying 10 times the amount of tax than the lower income earner. I would argue that this is not particularly fair but I would say that if you are earning £200,000 a year you could probably accept that £20,000 would go in tax.  

When Labour politicians say that they want high income earners to pay a fair amount of income tax they aren't making the case for the £20,000 in tax that my example provides above. They are actually saying that these individuals should a higher percentage of their income in tax as well. Forget my example of the person earning £200,000 a year. How about a person earning just over £34,370. This is the level beyond which a person in the UK pays 40% (rather than the basic rate of 20%) up until £150,000 where they are then required to pay 50% for every additional £1 earned. Just think about that for a moment. Earn £1, give 50p to the government. I wonder if a child would think that fair if you taxed their pocket money at 50%?

Surely having to pay 40% or 50% of your income above £34,370 is a massive disincentive to improve your career and earn more money. If people aren't working hard to improve then the impact is that companies become less competitive, the public sector becomes more wasteful and the overall standard of living in the UK declines. This is bad for everyone. In a global economy it's our team (UK) versus their teams (All other countries).

The table below shows some example salaries and how much of your income you would keep under the current UK income tax rules for 2012-2013.

We should encourage people to aim for the top and be proud of those that make it. Not everyone can earn footballer or bankers salaries but that doesn't mean we should begrudge them their income. My view is simple: If you want to earn a big salary it's up to you to aim high, work hard and do your very best. I solute achievers from all backgrounds.

I am not sure I fully understand why the Labour Party and others on the left have such hangups against people they refer to as 'the rich'. I can only assume that they are jealous and see the argument as a class war which they conveniently call 'fairness' to appeal to the masses.

I consider their behaviour to be unpatriotic. They should be ashamed.

GilesTweets.com / 21st April 2012.

About the author:
I was born in Somerset in 1975. Educated in average state schools. My parents divorced in 1981 and when my Mum remarried we moved to a notoriously bad council estate in Milton Keynes. I lived there for much of my youth. Whilst my family have a rich history dating back to 1066 they are all hard workers but not rich in monetary terms. Whatever I achieve, however good or bad, I achieve not because of a silver spoon in my mouth but because I am determined.


Sources:
(1) Her Majesty's Revenue & Customs: http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/rates/it.htm#2
(2) The Salary Calculator: http://www.thesalarycalculator.co.uk/salary.php